PropGolf model picks and analysis
Tournament previews, model picks, and recap analysis — generated weekly from our live PGA Tour signals. New posts every Tuesday ahead of the week's tee-off.
Kelly Staking Tested on 51,000 Golf Props
Flat staking made 24x more units than quarter Kelly and risked 32x more capital. Per unit risked: +5.16% against +3.91%, and where that difference comes from.
What Expected Value Means for a Golf Bet, and Why the Number Overstates It
The formula worked on a real settled position, then tested against settlement: across 43,173 bets an average 15.7% expected value returned +0.9%. Use it to rank, not to forecast.
How to Remove the Vig from a Golf Prop, and What It Actually Costs
Converting prices to fair probabilities, worked through a real line. Golf hole props carry a +6.6% to +11.8% margin, roughly double a standard point spread.
What Hitting the Fairway Is Actually Worth, in Strokes
From 688,314 tracked tee shots: the fairway is worth about 0.30 strokes on a par 4 and 2.0x the birdie rate. Which side you miss barely matters.
Every Bet We Publish, Including the Losing Ones
51,079 settled positions across 12 events: 36.9% win rate, +4.0% flat return, with the losing markets named rather than removed.
Scrambling in Golf: What a Missed Green Actually Costs, by Lie
Save rates from 533,101 tracked missed greens, split by lie. The gap between the best and worst place to miss is 17.3 points, and one lie carries 6x the blow-up rate of the rest.
How Hole by Hole Golf Props Work, and the Real Base Rates
Birdie, GIR, drive result and hole winner props explained, with base rates from 3,276,424 tracked hole scores. Par 5 birdie rate 43.9% against 13.2% on a par 3.
How Often Do PGA Tour Pros Make Putts? Make Rates by Distance
Make rates by distance from 1,075,821 tracked PGA Tour putts. Tour pros hole 40.8% from 8 to 12 feet, settling a figure the internet disagrees about.
The fastest ball speeds at the TOUR Championship
TrackMan-style radar from the TOUR Championship through three rounds: the fastest ball speeds (Chris Gotterup at 180.6 mph), who launches it highest, and how drive distance and accuracy translate to the off-the-tee markets we price.
Player spotlight: Rory McIlroy model edges
PropGolf's model edges for Rory McIlroy at TOUR Championship: hole-by-hole birdie probabilities from this week's sim. Top 6 highest-conviction picks.
Player spotlight: Scottie Scheffler model edges
PropGolf's model edges for Scottie Scheffler at TOUR Championship: hole-by-hole birdie probabilities from this week's sim. Top 6 highest-conviction picks.
Top birdie picks for TOUR Championship 2026
PropGolf's top 10 model-favored birdie picks for TOUR Championship 2026 at East Lake Golf Club. Hole-by-hole probabilities updated live during the tournament.
Top birdie picks for Travelers Championship 2026
PropGolf's top 10 model-favored birdie picks for Travelers Championship 2026 at TPC River Highlands. Hole-by-hole probabilities updated live during the tournament.