PropGolf model picks and analysis
Tournament previews, model picks, and recap analysis — generated weekly from our live PGA Tour signals. New posts every Tuesday ahead of the week's tee-off.
PGA Tour Spin Rate, Launch Angle and Peak Height by Distance
Spin rate, launch angle, peak height and ball speed for PGA Tour approach shots at every distance, from 115,221 radar-tracked shots. A shot of 150 to 174 yards spins 7,280 rpm from the fairway and 3,917 from the rough.
PGA Tour Scoring Average by Hole Length: Par 3s, 4s and 5s
Average score to par, birdie rate and bogey rate for PGA Tour par 3s, 4s and 5s at every length, from 2,516,401 hole scores. A par 4 of 450 to 474 yards averages +0.12; each 10 yards costs 0.034 strokes on a par 5 against 0.024 on a par 4.
DP World India Championship 2026: the field, and how they have been playing
The 144-player field for the DP World India Championship 2026 at Delhi Golf Club, with scoring, greens in regulation and driving distance measured from our own capture on both tours.
Baycurrent Classic 2026 after round 2: how the leaders are doing it
After two rounds at Yokohama Country Club (West Course): where the leaders are gaining their strokes and how round 2 played.
Strokes Gained: Which Category Actually Predicts Scoring?
Across 150,662 PGA Tour rounds: putting is 37% of a player's round-to-round swing but 17% of the gap between players, and a stroke gained off the tee carries 0.82 into next season against 0.53 for putting.
Baycurrent Classic 2026: how Yokohama Country Club (West Course) plays, from 21,554 shots
How Yokohama Country Club (West Course) has played at the Baycurrent Classic: every hole's scoring, and the shot-level patterns behind it, from 21,554 captured shots.
Open de España presented by Madrid 2026: the field, and how they have been playing
The 132-player field for the Open de España presented by Madrid 2026 at the host course, with scoring, greens in regulation and driving distance measured from shot-level play on both tours.
Bank of Utah Championship 2026 after round 3: how the leaders are doing it
After three rounds at Black Desert Resort: where the leaders are gaining their strokes, whether the wave draw mattered, and how round 3 played.
Alfred Dunhill Links Championship 2026 after round 3: the leaderboard adjusted for the course rotation
After 54 holes, every player has played Kingsbarns, Carnoustie and the Old Course once, in one of three orders. Kingsbarns has played 1.7 strokes easier than Carnoustie. Who is really ahead, and what the draw did to the cut.
Alfred Dunhill Links Championship 2026: the leaderboard adjusted for the course rotation
After 36 holes, every player has seen a different mix of Kingsbarns, Carnoustie and the Old Course. Kingsbarns has played 1.2 strokes easier than Carnoustie and the Old Course. Here is who is really ahead.
Is Distance or Accuracy Worth More in Golf?
Measured on the same 1,500 simulated player-rounds: 10 extra yards is worth 0.38 strokes a round and 10 points of fairway 0.23. Per standard deviation of the tour, distance is worth 3.1 times accuracy.
How Many Strokes Do Firm Conditions Cost?
Firm greens cost 0.58 strokes a round and firm fairways give back 0.22. Measured across 30 PGA Tour courses, and the two are uncorrelated at r=0.06, so a firm course is two conditions rather than one.
Bank of Utah Championship 2026: how Black Desert Resort plays, from 55,135 shots
How Black Desert Resort has played at the Bank of Utah Championship: every hole's scoring, and the shot-level patterns behind it, from 55,135 captured shots.
Alfred Dunhill Links Championship 2026: the field, and how they have been playing
The 167-player field for the Alfred Dunhill Links Championship 2026 at the host course, with scoring, greens in regulation and driving distance measured from shot-level play on both tours.
How Many Strokes Is 10 More Yards Off the Tee Worth?
Measured over 1,500 simulated player-rounds: 10 extra yards off the tee is worth 0.38 strokes a round and 30 yards 1.01. Greens in regulation rise with distance, and the gain is larger for players who are already short.
How Many Strokes Does Wind Cost in Golf?
Measured from tracked shots across 88 event-seasons: wind costs 1.45 strokes per round per 10 mph and drops the birdie rate 8.1 points by 25 mph. A headwind costs a par 4 0.18 strokes at 15 mph and a tailwind gives back almost none of it.
What Does a Tucked Pin Actually Cost?
Measured across 30 PGA Tour courses: a tucked pin costs 0.83 strokes per round, drops the birdie rate from 20.1% to 16.4%, and adds 6.8 feet to the average putt.
Presidents Cup 2026: USA vs International, By the Numbers
How the USA and International teams compare at the Presidents Cup 2026, measured from 33,848 holes of 2026 scoring: birdie rate, bogey rate, driving, greens in regulation, and every cross-team pairing modelled.
FedEx Open de France 2026: the field, and how they have been playing
The 144-player field for the FedEx Open de France 2026 at the host course, with scoring, greens in regulation and driving distance measured from shot-level play on both tours.
How Far Do PGA Tour Pros Actually Drive It?
Measured from 238,844 tracked driver swings: the tour averages 300 yards, peaking 102 feet high at 10.2 degrees with 2,620 rpm. Longest to shortest is 43 yards.
How Close Do PGA Tour Pros Hit It From Every Distance?
Average proximity and green-in-regulation from every approach distance, split by lie, from 535,084 tracked shots. From 137 yards: 24 ft and 80% from the fairway, 54 ft and 56% from the rough.
Amgen Irish Open 2026: the field, and how they have been playing
The 138-player field for the Amgen Irish Open 2026 at Trump International Golf Links & Hotel Ireland, with scoring, greens in regulation and driving distance measured from shot-level play on both tours.
How Fast Do PGA Tour Pros Actually Hit It?
Measured from 238,844 tracked drives: tour average ball speed is 173.1 mph, worth 1.43 yards per mph. The fastest players are 30 mph clear of the slowest.
What Model Calibration Means, and Where Ours Is Wrong
Our reliability curve across 51,494 settled positions: forecast 42.5%, won 36.9%. The bets where our probabilities were worst returned +37%, and why both are true at once.
Kelly Staking Tested on 51,000 Golf Props
Flat staking made 24x more units than quarter Kelly and risked 32x more capital. Per unit risked: +5.16% against +3.91%, and where that difference comes from.
What Expected Value Means for a Golf Bet, and Why the Number Overstates It
The formula worked on a real settled position, then tested against settlement: across 43,173 bets an average 15.7% expected value returned +0.9%. Use it to rank, not to forecast.
How to Remove the Vig from a Golf Prop, and What It Actually Costs
Converting prices to fair probabilities, worked through a real line. Golf hole props carry a +6.6% to +11.8% margin, roughly double a standard point spread.
What Hitting the Fairway Is Actually Worth, in Strokes
From 688,314 tracked tee shots: the fairway is worth about 0.30 strokes on a par 4 and 2.0x the birdie rate. Which side you miss barely matters.
Every Bet We Publish, Including the Losing Ones
51,079 settled positions across 12 events: 36.9% win rate, +4.0% flat return, with the losing markets named rather than removed.
Scrambling in Golf: What a Missed Green Actually Costs, by Lie
Save rates from 533,101 tracked missed greens, split by lie. The gap between the best and worst place to miss is 17.3 points, and one lie carries 6x the blow-up rate of the rest.
How Hole by Hole Golf Props Work, and the Real Base Rates
Birdie, GIR, drive result and hole winner props explained, with base rates from 3,276,424 tracked hole scores. Par 5 birdie rate 43.9% against 13.2% on a par 3.
How Often Do PGA Tour Pros Make Putts? Make Rates by Distance
Make rates by distance from 1,075,821 tracked PGA Tour putts. Tour pros hole 40.8% from 8 to 12 feet, settling a figure the internet disagrees about.
The fastest ball speeds at the TOUR Championship
TrackMan-style radar from the TOUR Championship through three rounds: the fastest ball speeds (Chris Gotterup at 180.6 mph), who launches it highest, and how drive distance and accuracy translate to the off-the-tee markets we price.
Player spotlight: Rory McIlroy model edges
PropGolf's model edges for Rory McIlroy at TOUR Championship: hole-by-hole birdie probabilities from this week's sim. Top 6 highest-conviction picks.
Player spotlight: Scottie Scheffler model edges
PropGolf's model edges for Scottie Scheffler at TOUR Championship: hole-by-hole birdie probabilities from this week's sim. Top 6 highest-conviction picks.
Top birdie picks for TOUR Championship 2026
PropGolf's top 10 model-favored birdie picks for TOUR Championship 2026 at East Lake Golf Club. Hole-by-hole probabilities updated live during the tournament.
Top birdie picks for Travelers Championship 2026
PropGolf's top 10 model-favored birdie picks for Travelers Championship 2026 at TPC River Highlands. Hole-by-hole probabilities updated live during the tournament.