"How close should I be from 150 yards" has a real answer, and it is not the one most people carry around. Here it is from 535,084 tracked approach shots on par 4s and par 5s, 2021 to 2026, split by the lie the shot was played from.
From the fairway
| From | Average proximity | Hit the green | Shots |
|---|---|---|---|
| 89 yards | 19 ft | 84.9% | 30,924 |
| 113 yards | 21 ft | 82.3% | 61,904 |
| 137 yards | 24 ft | 79.7% | 84,818 |
| 162 yards | 29 ft | 74.8% | 82,654 |
| 186 yards | 36 ft | 66.7% | 53,596 |
| 209 yards | 46 ft | 57.2% | 19,028 |
Proximity is the average distance the ball finished from the hole, misses included, not the distance of the ones that found the green.
From 137 yards, the fullest bucket in this sample at 84,818 shots, a fairway approach finishes 24 feet away and holds the green 79.7% of the time. Across the whole range, going from 89 to 209 yards multiplies proximity by 2.4x (19 ft to 46 ft) and costs 28 points of green in regulation.
From the rough
| From | Average proximity | Hit the green | Shots |
|---|---|---|---|
| 89 yards | 37 ft | 68.0% | 10,893 |
| 113 yards | 45 ft | 62.1% | 22,723 |
| 138 yards | 54 ft | 55.7% | 36,478 |
| 162 yards | 68 ft | 48.3% | 41,398 |
| 186 yards | 88 ft | 39.8% | 32,300 |
| 210 yards | 122 ft | 28.7% | 16,000 |
| 225 yards | 152 ft | 22.4% | 335 |
What the rough actually costs
| From | Fairway | Rough | Proximity cost |
|---|---|---|---|
| 89 yards | 19 ft / 85% | 37 ft / 68% | +18 ft |
| 113 yards | 21 ft / 82% | 45 ft / 62% | +23 ft |
| 137 yards | 24 ft / 80% | 54 ft / 56% | +30 ft |
| 162 yards | 29 ft / 75% | 68 ft / 48% | +39 ft |
| 186 yards | 36 ft / 67% | 88 ft / 40% | +53 ft |
| 209 yards | 46 ft / 57% | 122 ft / 29% | +76 ft |
At 137 yards the rough multiplies proximity by 2.2x (24 ft to 54 ft) and takes 24 points off the chance of holding the green.
That is the number worth carrying. A drive in the rough does not cost you a stroke directly. It costs you roughly 2.2 times the distance to the hole on the next shot, and that is where the stroke eventually comes from.
Who is best at this
Sharpest approach players from the fairway between 125 and 200 yards, 2025 onward, minimum 250 tracked shots:
| Player | Proximity | Green in regulation | Shots |
|---|---|---|---|
| Davis Thompson | 24.3 ft | 78.4% | 486 |
| Hideki Matsuyama | 24.9 ft | 75.5% | 579 |
| Luke Clanton | 25.5 ft | 77.9% | 312 |
| Mac Meissner | 25.8 ft | 74.6% | 393 |
| Patrick Cantlay | 25.9 ft | 76.8% | 492 |
| Lee Hodges | 26.0 ft | 78.9% | 417 |
| Scottie Scheffler | 26.0 ft | 77.7% | 600 |
| Ben Kohles | 26.1 ft | 82.6% | 328 |
| Austin Eckroat | 26.1 ft | 74.5% | 463 |
| Joel Dahmen | 26.1 ft | 74.2% | 418 |
Why you should distrust a pooled number here
Run this without splitting by lie and the table breaks: shots from inside 75 yards come out WORSE than shots from 75 to 99, which is obviously wrong.
It is a lie-mix artifact. Reaching 60 yards on a par 4 usually means something went sideways, so that bucket is only about half fairway lies, against roughly 70% at 75 to 99 yards. The pooled average is measuring the trouble, not the distance. Split by lie and the order is correct at every step.
Any proximity table that does not tell you the lie is averaging a wedge from the middle of the fairway with a hack-out from the trees.
How this is measured
The regulation approach is the shot played two strokes before the hole's par, so the second shot on a par 4 and the third on a par 5. Every one is counted whether it finished on the green or not, which is what makes the green-in-regulation column meaningful.
Starting distance is taken from where the previous shot came to rest, not from the length of the approach itself. Those are different numbers, and confusing them inverts the whole table.
Sense check against the public record: the PGA Tour reports roughly 32 feet of proximity from 150 to 175 yards. Our nearest bucket, 162 yards from the fairway, comes out at 29 feet on 82,654 shots.
PropGolf models every approach on every hole from data like this, live while play is happening. See the live board.