A green in regulation means the ball is on the putting surface in par minus two strokes: the tee shot on a par 3, the second shot on a par 4, the third on a par 5. On the fringe does not count. Holing out from off the green within regulation counts as a green hit in our settlement; check the book's rules. DraftKings sells it as a yes or no for one player on one hole.
PropGolf prices every green in regulation line DraftKings posts, hole by hole and live through the round, with our chance next to the book's. See the live board.
How often each outcome landed
We took every line DraftKings had open on this market that our model also priced, across 16 PGA Tour events, May to October 2026: 97,429 lines, one line being one outcome for one player on one hole. Each is settled from shot-by-shot tracking data at the first price we saw, and only prices quoted before the player teed off on the hole count. The book's chance is its price with the margin taken out in proportion to each price (how that works). Return is what backing every line at the posted price would have made per unit staked.
The two prices add up to about 106.5%, a margin of 6.5%, the lowest of the hole markets. It falls mostly on the no side: yes landed 68.8% against a margin-free 67.4%, so backing every yes lost 3.8% of stakes and every no 10.0%.
By par
By price
Of all the hole markets this is the one where the book's prices sit closest to what happened, band by band. A green in regulation is a measured, repeatable skill and the book prices it well.
On par 3s: where the tee shot finishes
On par 3s DraftKings also posts a five-way tee shot finish: on the green, in the fairway, in the rough or anywhere else, in a bunker, or in the water. On the green is the par 3 green in regulation by another name.
42,685 lines from 14 PGA Tour events, May to October 2026. The five prices add up to about 110%. The green landed 67.5% against a margin-free 64.6%; the long shots, water above all, landed less often than priced.
What decides it
Approach distance and the lie the ball is played from do most of the work, then the pin: a tucked pin costs greens as players aim away from it. Our model prices each line from the player's own approach play at that distance and adjusts through the round as the field's approaches come in. More in approach proximity by distance, what a tucked pin costs and what a missed green costs.
The other hole markets
- Hole score: birdie, par or bogey
- Drive result: fairway, rough or bunker
- Putts on a hole
- Longest drive and nearest the pin
- How live hole prices move
Background: how hole-by-hole props work, removing the vig, what expected value means, how well our probabilities hold up and our published record.
See the live board: every hole DraftKings prices, with our chance next to the book's and the expected value at the posted price. To see why a price moves, the scenario engine re-runs a player's round with their game and the conditions as knobs you can drag, free and no account needed.