The Alfred Dunhill Links Championship sends the field around three links in the first three rounds: Kingsbarns, Carnoustie and the Old Course at St Andrews. After round 3, every player has played all three, in one of three orders, and they have not played alike. The field has averaged -2.44 to par per round at Kingsbarns, against -1.27 at the Old Course and -0.74 at Carnoustie. The leaderboard adds those rounds up as if they were the same test. Casey Jarvis leads, and still leads once each round is scored against its own course.
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How the three courses have played
Field average to par per round, by course and day:
| Course | Round 1 | Round 2 | Round 3 | Average |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kingsbarns | -1.62 | -3.20 | -2.49 | -2.44 |
| Old Course | -0.95 | -1.43 | -1.45 | -1.27 |
| Carnoustie | -0.75 | -1.76 | +0.29 | -0.74 |
Two under par at Carnoustie is roughly 1.7 strokes better golf than two under at Kingsbarns.
The leaderboard, adjusted
Each round below is scored against the players who played the same course on the same day, which takes out both the course and that day's weather. The adjusted figure is strokes better than that field, added up over three rounds.
| Adjusted | Player | Strokes vs field | Leaderboard | Order played |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Casey Jarvis | +12.6 | 1 (-18) | Carnoustie, Kingsbarns, Old Course |
| T2 | Matthew Jordan | +10.8 | T2 (-16) | Old Course, Carnoustie, Kingsbarns |
| T2 | Adrian Meronk | +10.8 | T2 (-16) | Old Course, Carnoustie, Kingsbarns |
| 4 | Thomas Detry | +9.6 | 4 (-15) | Carnoustie, Kingsbarns, Old Course |
| 5 | Jacob Skov Olesen | +8.8 | T5 (-14) | Old Course, Carnoustie, Kingsbarns |
| 6 | Niklas Nørgaard | +8.6 | T5 (-14) | Carnoustie, Kingsbarns, Old Course |
| T7 | Mikael Lindberg | +8.2 | T17 (-11) | Kingsbarns, Old Course, Carnoustie |
| T7 | MJ Daffue | +8.2 | T17 (-11) | Kingsbarns, Old Course, Carnoustie |
| 9 | Sepp Straka | +7.6 | 7 (-13) | Carnoustie, Kingsbarns, Old Course |
| T10 | David Ravetto | +7.2 | T21 (-10) | Kingsbarns, Old Course, Carnoustie |
| T10 | Sam Bairstow | +7.2 | T21 (-10) | Kingsbarns, Old Course, Carnoustie |
| T12 | Sebastian Söderberg | +6.8 | T8 (-12) | Old Course, Carnoustie, Kingsbarns |
| T12 | JC Ritchie | +6.8 | T8 (-12) | Old Course, Carnoustie, Kingsbarns |
| T12 | Calum Hill | +6.8 | T8 (-12) | Old Course, Carnoustie, Kingsbarns |
| T15 | Matt Fitzpatrick | +6.6 | T8 (-12) | Carnoustie, Kingsbarns, Old Course |
Three draws, three leaderboards
The field plays the rotation in three orders, and everyone in the same order has had the same courses on the same days. The draws have not been equally kind:
| Draw | Field to par over those rounds | Head start | Best placed (adjusted rank) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Carnoustie, then Kingsbarns, then Old Course | -5.39 | +2.6 | Casey Jarvis (1), Thomas Detry (4) and Niklas Nørgaard (6) |
| Old Course, then Carnoustie, then Kingsbarns | -5.20 | +2.4 | Matthew Jordan (T2), Adrian Meronk (T2) and Jacob Skov Olesen (5) |
| Kingsbarns, then Old Course, then Carnoustie | -2.77 | +0.0 | Mikael Lindberg (T7), MJ Daffue (T7) and David Ravetto (T10) |
The head start is how many strokes easier the draw has played than the toughest one, added up over the three rounds. A player seven under after Carnoustie and then Kingsbarns and then the Old Course has played about as well as one four under after Kingsbarns and then the Old Course and then Carnoustie.
The cut, and round 4
The cut, the top 60 and ties on the leaderboard, fell at 6 under, and 70 players made it. It is made on the raw scores, so it carries the draw with it.
Scored against their own course each day, five players who missed it rank inside the top 60: Brandon Robinson Thompson (T71 on the leaderboard, T54 adjusted), Thomas Rosenmueller (T71 on the leaderboard, T54 adjusted), Dylan Naidoo (T71 on the leaderboard, T54 adjusted), James Marchesani (T71 on the leaderboard, T54 adjusted) and Jack Buchanan (T71 on the leaderboard, T54 adjusted). All of them played Kingsbarns, then the Old Course, then Carnoustie.
Going the other way, 12 players made it on the leaderboard but rank outside the top 60 adjusted: Todd Clements (T59 on the leaderboard, T77 adjusted), Branden Grace (T59 on the leaderboard, T77 adjusted), Daniel Cronje (T59 on the leaderboard, T77 adjusted), Eddie Pepperell (T59 on the leaderboard, T73 adjusted), Cameron Adam (T59 on the leaderboard, T73 adjusted), Nick Voke (T59 on the leaderboard, T73 adjusted), Marcus Kinhult (T59 on the leaderboard, T73 adjusted), David Puig (T46 on the leaderboard, T64 adjusted) and 4 more.
A three-round adjusted total is uncertain by about a stroke, so read these as the players the draw most likely moved, not a verdict on any one of them.
Everyone who made the cut plays round 4 at the Old Course, so the course effect that has bent the leaderboard for three days is gone. From here the leaderboard and the adjusted standings move together, apart from the weather at different tee times. Casey Jarvis starts round 4 two shots clear on the leaderboard and 1.8 clear adjusted, so the lead is as real as it looks.
How this is calculated
Every round is compared with the average score of the players on the same course that day, roughly 56 players per course per round. That removes the course and the weather, but the field average still carries some noise: with about 56 players, the course-day average is uncertain by about half a stroke, so small gaps in the table are not meaningful. Scores come from the official hole-by-hole scoring. Only players with every round complete are ranked.
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