PropGolf's live model is running on TOUR Championship 2026 at East Lake Golf Club. Below are the top 10 player-hole combinations our model gives the highest birdie-or-better probability, pulled directly from sim_hole_score as of this post's publish time.
These are the model's unfiltered picks (highest raw probability), they don't account for sportsbook pricing, so an actual +EV bet depends on the line you can take at the time of wager. Live edge calculations against DraftKings and FanDuel update every cycle inside the app.
Top picks
| Rank | Player | Hole | Par | Model birdie% | Sim odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Matt Fitzpatrick | 18 | 5 | 66.7% | -200 |
| 2 | Scottie Scheffler | 6 | 5 | 65.2% | -187 |
| 3 | Wyndham Clark | 6 | 5 | 64.6% | -182 |
| 4 | Si Woo Kim | 18 | 5 | 64.2% | -179 |
| 5 | Tom Kim | 18 | 5 | 64.2% | -179 |
| 6 | Cameron Young | 6 | 5 | 63.4% | -173 |
| 7 | Viktor Hovland | 8 | 4 | 46.1% | +117 |
| 8 | Rory McIlroy | 8 | 4 | 45.5% | +119 |
| 9 | Gary Woodland | 8 | 4 | 45.0% | +122 |
| 10 | Collin Morikawa | 10 | 4 | 41.8% | +139 |
How the model builds these probabilities
PropGolf's sim engine fits per-course parameters from every captured tee shot, approach, and putt at this venue going back to 2021. For each player it samples 5,000 chained simulations of tee → approach → putt per hole, then aggregates the per-hole scoring distribution. The numbers above are the result of that process, not editorial picks.
Want the live updates? See a live preview of the board with real model signals, or the TOUR Championship tournament page for hole-by-hole scoring context.
Auto-generated from PropGolf's sim_hole_score table.