Two markets are priced across a group rather than for one player. Longest drive asks which player in the group hits the longest tee shot that finishes in the fairway on a par 4 or par 5; nearest the pin asks whose tee shot on a par 3 finishes closest to the hole on the green. Each has a "no one" outcome for when nobody in the group finds the fairway, or the green. Ties are usually settled by dead-heat rules, which pay a share; check the book.
PropGolf prices every longest drive and nearest the pin line DraftKings posts, hole by hole and live through the round, with our chance next to the book's. See the live board.
How often each outcome landed
We took every complete group book DraftKings had open that our model also priced, across 10 PGA Tour events, June to October 2026, settled from shot-by-shot tracking data at the first price we saw before the group teed off on the hole. The book's chance is its price with the margin taken out across every outcome, the "no one" line included (how that works).
The margin is about the same as the hole score market's, and the book prices the "no one" outcome close to how often it happens. Backing every player lost money in both markets, more than the margin alone in longest drive.
By price
Every player line in both markets, grouped by the book's chance:
What decides them
Longest drive is a two-part bet: the player has to be long and has to find the fairway, and the second part is where most groups are decided. Nearest the pin is mostly approach dispersion from a fixed yardage, with the pin and the wind shared by everyone in the group. Our model simulates each player's tee shot on the hole and compares them shot for shot, with conditions on the hole shared across the group, rather than pricing each player alone. More in PGA Tour driving distance and approach proximity by distance.
The other hole markets
- Hole score: birdie, par or bogey
- Drive result: fairway, rough or bunker
- Green in regulation and par 3 tee shot finish
- Putts on a hole
- How live hole prices move
Background: how hole-by-hole props work, removing the vig, what expected value means, how well our probabilities hold up and our published record.
See the live board: every hole DraftKings prices, with our chance next to the book's and the expected value at the posted price. To see why a price moves, the scenario engine re-runs a player's round with their game and the conditions as knobs you can drag, free and no account needed.