The drive result market asks where one player's tee shot on a par 4 or par 5 finishes, in four outcomes: in the fairway and past a set yardage, in the fairway and short of it, in the rough (or anywhere else that is not fairway or sand), or in a bunker. The yardage is set for each player, so a long hitter's line sits further out than a short hitter's: eight in ten of the lines we saw were between 290 and 340 yards, the middle one 310.5. A drive that finishes in the first cut is not in the fairway.
PropGolf prices every drive result line DraftKings posts, hole by hole and live through the round, with our chance next to the book's. See the live board.
How often each outcome landed
We took every line DraftKings had open on this market that our model also priced, across 15 PGA Tour events, May to October 2026: 10,656 lines, one line being one outcome for one player on one hole. Each is settled from shot-by-shot tracking data at the first price we saw, and only prices quoted before the player teed off on the hole count. The book's chance is its price with the margin taken out in proportion to each price (how that works). Return is what backing every line at the posted price would have made per unit staked.
We hold settled prices for the two fairway outcomes only; the rough and bunker lines are posted too but are not in this sample. Together the two fairway lines priced the drive to finish in the fairway 62.2% of the time, and it did 63.2% (4,601 drives with both lines).
This is the most expensive of the hole markets we price: the four prices add up to about 113%, a margin of 12.9%. As with the other markets the margin is not even. The over side landed more often than its margin-free price (33.9% against 31.0%) and the under side less often (28.1% against 30.2%), so backing every over lost 3.0% of stakes and every under 15.5%.
By price
What decides it
Two things have to go right for a fairway line: the drive has to find the fairway, and it has to finish on the right side of the yardage. Wind, firmness and the tee box the hole is played from all move the second part, which is why our model prices these from each player's own distance and dispersion on that hole and adjusts through the round as the field's drives come in. How much a fairway is worth in strokes is in does hitting the fairway matter, and what extra length buys in what extra driving distance is worth.
The other hole markets
- Hole score: birdie, par or bogey
- Green in regulation and par 3 tee shot finish
- Putts on a hole
- Longest drive and nearest the pin
- How live hole prices move
Background: how hole-by-hole props work, removing the vig, what expected value means, how well our probabilities hold up and our published record.
See the live board: every hole DraftKings prices, with our chance next to the book's and the expected value at the posted price. To see why a price moves, the scenario engine re-runs a player's round with their game and the conditions as knobs you can drag, free and no account needed.