Explainer·October 26, 2026

Live golf betting: how hole prop odds move during a round

How long DraftKings keeps a hole's lines open during a round, how often and how far the prices move before the tee shot, and whether the moves predict the result, from 323,461 live hole lines.

Live golf betting on DraftKings happens a hole at a time. While a player is on the course, the book posts prices for the holes still ahead of them (hole score, green in regulation, drive result and the rest) and stops taking bets on a hole once the player is on it. So the window to bet a hole is the time between the book posting it and the player's tee shot, and the price can move inside that window.

PropGolf prices every hole line DraftKings posts, hole by hole and live through the round, with our chance next to the book's. See the live board.

How long a hole is open

We priced every hole line DraftKings had open every 20 minutes through each round, across 20 PGA Tour events, May to October 2026. For hole score, the middle line was first quoted about 20 minutes before the player's tee shot on the hole, a quarter were up for more than 60 minutes and a tenth for more than 6 hours. 36% were seen in only one of our pricing cycles. These windows are measured to within one cycle, so the real ones run up to 20 minutes longer. Most hole lines are short-lived: they go up a hole or two ahead of the player and come down when the player gets there.

How much prices move

Market
Lines
Price moved before the tee shot
Typical move when it did
Green in regulation
97,429
34%
1.9 points
Hole score
183,347
38%
1.5 points
Par 3 tee shot finish
42,685
53%
0.8 points

A move is measured on the book's margin-free chance, so a hole score move of 1.5 points is a line going from, say, 24% to 25.5%. Most lines never move at all before the player reaches the hole.

Do the moves mean anything?

All three markets together, split by which way the price went between the first quote and the last one before the tee shot:

Price before the tee shot
Lines
First price
Last price
Happened
Shortened by more than a point
38,215
39.6%
44.0%
43.3%
Unchanged or within a point
246,570
36.2%
36.2%
36.2%
Drifted by more than a point
38,676
39.4%
35.2%
36.0%

They do. Lines that shortened went on to land 43.3% of the time, against a first price of 39.6%; lines that drifted landed 36.0% against 39.4%. The book is learning something between the two quotes, most likely how the hole is playing for the groups ahead. The last price was close to right on average, so the move itself is not an edge once it has happened: what matters is whether your number was ahead of it.

Across every line, though, the last price was barely more accurate than the first (a Brier score of 0.1697 against 0.1700, lower is better), because most lines do not move at all. Before a hole is played, the opening price is most of the information the book will have.

What it means if you bet live

Speed matters more than timing. A hole's line is often up for well under an hour, and the useful information, how the hole is playing today, arrives in the same window. That is what our live board is built around: every hole line is re-priced every 20 minutes from the field's shots so far, next to DraftKings' current price, and a hole drops off the board once the player has teed off on it, because a price taken after the tee shot is not one you can get.

The other hole markets

Background: how hole-by-hole props work, removing the vig, what expected value means, how well our probabilities hold up and our published record.


See the live board: every hole DraftKings prices, with our chance next to the book's and the expected value at the posted price. To see why a price moves, the scenario engine re-runs a player's round with their game and the conditions as knobs you can drag, free and no account needed.

More numbers like this

Look it up yourself

Still curious?

Ask Caddie about these numbers
Free with an account · 5 questions a day