The hole score market is the one DraftKings posts on every hole: for each player, three prices, birdie or better, par, and bogey or worse. An eagle counts as birdie or better and a double bogey as bogey or worse, so one of the three always wins. Rules for a player who withdraws mid-hole vary by book, so check them before you bet.
PropGolf prices every hole score line DraftKings posts, hole by hole and live through the round, with our chance next to the book's. See the live board.
How often each outcome landed
We took every line DraftKings had open on this market that our model also priced, across 20 PGA Tour events, May to October 2026: 183,347 lines, one line being one outcome for one player on one hole. Each is settled from shot-by-shot tracking data at the first price we saw, and only prices quoted before the player teed off on the hole count. The book's chance is its price with the margin taken out in proportion to each price (how that works). Return is what backing every line at the posted price would have made per unit staked.
The three prices on a hole add up to about 109%, so the book's margin on this market averages 9.2%. It is not spread evenly. Par landed more often than its margin-free price (62.8% against 59.7%), and both of the long sides less often. Backing every par at DraftKings' price lost 3.5% of stakes; backing every birdie or better lost 14.2%, and every bogey or worse 18.0%. Taking the margin out in proportion to each price, the usual method, flatters the long shots: the book puts more of its margin on them.
By par
Lines here count each player-hole once. Par 5s are the one hole type where birdie or better is the favourite, and the pattern turns with it: there, birdie or better is the outcome that beats its margin-free price.
By price
Every hole score line grouped by the book's chance, against how often it happened:
Every band below 40% happened less often than the book's margin-free price said, and 3 of the 4 bands from 40% up happened more often. That is the margin sitting on the long shots again, seen price by price rather than outcome by outcome.
What it means if you bet it
The margin is the hurdle. A line is worth backing only when your chance of the outcome is clearly above the book's, and on the long sides the true hurdle is higher than the margin-free price suggests. On our live board a hole score line shows only when our expected value at the posted price is at least 5%, or 10% for birdie or better, and we do not show bogey or worse at all: across our settled record it has not paid. How our own probabilities have held up is in calibration, and every line we have published is in our record.
The other hole markets
- Drive result: fairway, rough or bunker
- Green in regulation and par 3 tee shot finish
- Putts on a hole
- Longest drive and nearest the pin
- How live hole prices move
Background: how hole-by-hole props work, removing the vig, what expected value means, how well our probabilities hold up and our published record.
See the live board: every hole DraftKings prices, with our chance next to the book's and the expected value at the posted price. To see why a price moves, the scenario engine re-runs a player's round with their game and the conditions as knobs you can drag, free and no account needed.