How hard is a 450-yard par 4 for a tour pro? One of 450 to 474 yards averages +0.12 to par, with birdie or better 12.6% of the time and bogey or worse 21.8%. Here is the same answer for every length of par 3, par 4 and par 5, from 2,516,401 PGA Tour hole scores across 83 courses, 2016 to 2026, in 25-yard steps.
Want to see what these numbers do for a player you care about? The scenario engine re-simulates a full round with the figures below as knobs you can drag. Open the scenario engine, free and no account needed.
Par 3s
| Length | Average to par | Birdie or better | Bogey or worse | Hole scores |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 100-124 yards | -0.14 | 26.5% | 10.1% | 8,729 |
| 125-149 yards | -0.04 | 20.0% | 12.7% | 25,218 |
| 150-174 yards | -0.01 | 17.3% | 14.3% | 126,600 |
| 175-199 yards | +0.07 | 12.9% | 17.6% | 191,002 |
| 200-224 yards | +0.11 | 10.9% | 20.0% | 146,698 |
| 225-249 yards | +0.18 | 7.8% | 23.9% | 58,969 |
| 250-274 yards | +0.23 | 6.1% | 27.7% | 6,226 |
Par 3s turn over par at about 165 yards on the card. Each extra 10 yards adds 0.025 strokes.
Par 4s
| Length | Average to par | Birdie or better | Bogey or worse | Hole scores |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 275-299 yards | -0.32 | 42.2% | 10.7% | 12,851 |
| 300-324 yards | -0.29 | 39.2% | 9.7% | 26,792 |
| 325-349 yards | -0.17 | 28.6% | 11.1% | 43,800 |
| 350-374 yards | -0.10 | 23.9% | 12.3% | 89,150 |
| 375-399 yards | -0.05 | 20.5% | 14.1% | 183,912 |
| 400-424 yards | 0.00 | 18.2% | 15.8% | 279,545 |
| 425-449 yards | +0.05 | 15.6% | 18.1% | 338,726 |
| 450-474 yards | +0.12 | 12.6% | 21.8% | 313,254 |
| 475-499 yards | +0.19 | 10.2% | 25.9% | 164,479 |
| 500-524 yards | +0.24 | 8.4% | 29.1% | 49,504 |
| 525-549 yards | +0.24 | 7.8% | 28.3% | 10,076 |
Par 4s turn over par at about 415 yards. Each extra 10 yards adds 0.024 strokes.
Par 5s
| Length | Average to par | Birdie or better | Bogey or worse | Hole scores |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 475-499 yards | -0.67 | 65.4% | 4.0% | 4,715 |
| 500-524 yards | -0.53 | 56.2% | 7.0% | 51,086 |
| 525-549 yards | -0.43 | 49.8% | 8.4% | 117,730 |
| 550-574 yards | -0.35 | 43.3% | 9.1% | 125,003 |
| 575-599 yards | -0.25 | 36.0% | 10.4% | 80,574 |
| 600-624 yards | -0.17 | 30.4% | 12.4% | 47,466 |
| 625-649 yards | -0.16 | 28.9% | 12.0% | 14,296 |
No par 5 length in this data averages over par, but this is where length costs the most: 0.034 strokes per 10 yards, about 1.4 times the rate on a par 4. On a par 5 the extra yards decide whether the green can be reached in two.
The short par 4 against the long par 5
The shortest par 4s here, 275 to 299 yards, average -0.32 with birdie or better 42% of the time. The longest par 5s, 625 to 649 yards, average -0.16. A par 4 the field can reach from the tee plays easier than a par 5 it cannot reach in two.
Why two holes of the same length play differently
Length sets the trend, not the hole. Among the 235 par 4s of 425 to 449 yards with at least 300 recorded scores, one in ten plays easier than -0.07 and one in ten harder than +0.18. That gap of 0.25 strokes is what adding about 105 yards does to an average par 4.
Elevation, wind exposure, firmness, hazards and pin positions all sit inside that spread. The tables say what an average hole of a given length plays like, not what any particular one will.
How this is measured
Every score on every hole of every PGA Tour round with hole-level scoring, 2016 onward, against the yardage on the card for that round. Seasons where the source served copied data for an event that was not played are removed, and so are cards with an impossible yardage for the par, such as a 0-yard hole. Rows with fewer than 3,000 scores are left out.
Birdie or better includes eagles and better. Bogey or worse includes doubles and worse. The per-10-yard figures are fitted on every hole score rather than on the rows of the tables.
For what happens shot by shot inside these averages, see what a missed green costs, approach proximity by distance, PGA Tour driving distance and how hole-by-hole props work.
PropGolf models every hole from shot-level tracking data. Try it on any player or hole with the scenario engine, free and no account needed.
For live hole-by-hole prices during a tournament, see the live board.