Almost every service that sells golf picks shows you the winners. The screenshots are real, the bets are real, and the selection is doing all the work.
We publish every settled call, wins and losses, on a public results page. So here is the whole record.
The record
Across 12 events and 51,079 settled positions:
- Won 18,825. Lost 32,196. A win rate of 36.9%.
- Flat staking, one unit per position: +2,044 units, a return of +4.0%.
- Quarter-Kelly staking: +84 units on 1,580 staked, a return of +5.3%.
Losing most of the time is the normal case
The win rate is the number people misread. Losing 63% of your positions sounds like failure. It is not, because these are mostly plus-money props.
A bet at +450 returns four and a half units when it lands and costs one when it does not. It needs to win about 18 percent of the time to break even. Winning 36.9% of positions at those prices is a profit, and a service quoting a 60 percent win rate is almost certainly selling heavy favourites where the price does the losing instead.
Win rate on its own tells you nothing without the price beside it. Any number quoted without one should be ignored.
The part most services would cut
Hole score (birdie, par, bogey) is our largest market by volume, 23,583 positions, and it loses money at -2.2%.
That is the market a marketing page would quietly drop. We publish it because a record with the bad markets removed is not a record, it is an advert. If we cut it, you would have no way to judge whether anything else on the page had been cut too.
Here is every market, ranked:
| Market | Bets | Won | Lost | Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Group total greens | 1,268 | 299 | 969 | +27.7% |
| Nearest the pin | 1,567 | 482 | 1,078 | +16.9% |
| Group total fairways | 369 | 93 | 276 | +15.9% |
| Par 3 tee shot finish | 5,625 | 1,519 | 4,106 | +14.9% |
| Drive result | 3,452 | 1,173 | 2,279 | +8.1% |
| Longest drive | 1,802 | 518 | 1,268 | +6.3% |
| Green in regulation | 12,995 | 6,467 | 6,528 | +5.1% |
| Round head to head | 392 | 179 | 178 | +0.0% |
| Putts on the hole | 26 | 10 | 16 | -0.5% |
| Hole score (birdie, par, bogey) | 23,583 | 8,085 | 15,498 | -2.2% |
Markets currently in the red: Hole score (birdie, par, bogey), Putts on the hole.
What these numbers are, exactly
Being specific matters more than being impressive:
- They are model-priced positions, not bets we placed. Every one is a price our model published against a sportsbook line, settled against the actual outcome.
- They are the curated set. The same filters the live board applies: suppressed markets excluded, per-market expected-value floors enforced, and each position re-checked at its latest probability. It is what a subscriber would have seen, not everything the model priced.
- The sample is one partial season. 12 events. That is enough to see a market bleeding, and not enough to be certain about a market that looks strong.
- Every position is settled against shot data, not self-reported.
Why publish the losses at all
Because the alternative is unfalsifiable. A page of winners is compatible with a great model and with a terrible one, so it carries no information.
It also keeps us honest internally. A market that bleeds in public gets fixed or gets suppressed. Hole score (birdie, par, bogey) is the current worst at -2.2%, and it is under active review for exactly that reason.
Past results do not predict future ones, on any market here. This is a record, not a forecast.
The full settled record, every position, updates during play at propgolf.app.