TOUR Championship
Aug 27 – Aug 30, 2026 · East Lake Golf Club · Atlanta, GA, USA
Won by Scottie Scheffler
The TOUR Championship has been played at East Lake Golf Club 10 times since the 2016 season, and the field has averaged 1.11 under par per round there. Winning totals have ranged from 11 under par to 19 under par. Scottie Scheffler won the 2026 edition at 16 under par.
The par-5 6th gives up the most birdies (a 58.2% birdie rate), and the par-4 1st is the hardest hole, with a 24.5% bogey rate. Of this week's field, Xander Schauffele has the best record here: 1.87 strokes per round better than the field over 32 rounds, including a playoff for the title.
During the tournament PropGolf models every hole for every player live, with birdie, par and bogey probabilities beside the sportsbook lines and an ETA for each group, plus tee, approach and putting breakdowns from shot tracking at East Lake Golf Club.
Tournament recap
Down 1.45u using our recommended stake sizes (14.5u risked across 434 picks, 172 winners at 39.6% hit).
🟢 Drive Result — Fairway Under (335.5) Yards — bet 3 times. 1 winner (33.3% vs 36.2% expected, odds around 4 to 1). +84.6% return (+0.11u on recommended stakes)
🟢 Birdies — bet 99 times. 24 winners (24.2% vs 30.3% expected, odds around 4 to 1). +4.9% return (+0.09u on recommended stakes)
🟢 Miss the Green picks — bet 67 times. 20 winners (29.9% vs 34.7% expected, odds around 3 to 1). +6.9% return (+0.08u on recommended stakes)
🔴 Pars — bet 114 times. 71 winners (62.3% vs 71.0% expected, odds around 1 to 1). -5.9% return (-0.36u on recommended stakes)
🔴 Drive Result — Fairway Under (350.5) Yards — bet 4 times. 0 winners (0.0% vs 36.3% expected, odds around 4 to 1). -100.0% return (-0.22u on recommended stakes)
🔴 Drive Result — Fairway Under (295.5) Yards — bet 5 times. 0 winners (0.0% vs 45.8% expected, odds around 2 to 1). -100.0% return (-0.19u on recommended stakes)
- Hole 9 (?) — 0% of the field bogeyed it, 0% birdied it → +23.5% return (+0.32u)
- Hole 13 (?) — 0% of the field bogeyed it, 0% birdied it → +16.1% return (+0.16u)
- Hole 5 (?) — 0% of the field bogeyed it, 0% birdied it → +78.0% return (+0.16u)
- Hole 16 (?) — 0% of the field bogeyed it, 0% birdied it → -33.9% return (-0.54u)
- Hole 6 (?) — 0% of the field bogeyed it, 0% birdied it → -51.2% return (-0.46u)
- Hole 14 (?) — 0% of the field bogeyed it, 0% birdied it → -27.4% return (-0.40u)
Here's how the Confidence tiers settled this round:
| Tier | Picks | Hit rate | Return |
|---|---|---|---|
| 🟢 CONSENSUS | 158 | 44.9% | -10.0% |
| 🟡 LEAN | 86 | 47.7% | +5.5% |
- ✅ Schauffele, Xander — 7/10 picks landed. +59.7% return (+0.23u)
- ✅ Fitzpatrick, Alex — 9/19 picks landed. +41.6% return (+0.21u)
- ✅ Cantlay, Patrick — 6/9 picks landed. +55.1% return (+0.15u)
- ❌ Young, Cameron — 5/23 picks landed. -56.7% return (-0.39u)
- ❌ McIlroy, Rory — 5/15 picks landed. -51.9% return (-0.35u)
- ❌ Gerard, Ryan — 6/19 picks landed. -43.1% return (-0.35u)
- If the Confidence filter held up here, it's worth leaning on at the next event.
- The markets that worked here usually carry into similar courses + conditions.
- The markets that lost may rebound at venues where the course plays differently.
See the Signals page for live picks and use the Confidence filter to focus on the picks the model is steady on.
Compiled from shot-level scoring captured during play.
Final leaderboard
Top 10 at the 2026 TOUR Championship, by total score to par.
| Pos | Player | To par |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Scottie Scheffler | -16 |
| 2 | Viktor Hovland | -13 |
| 3 | Ryan Gerard | -12 |
| T4 | Rory McIlroy | -11 |
| T4 | Ludvig Aberg | -11 |
| T4 | Russell Henley | -11 |
| T4 | Jacob Bridgeman | -11 |
| T4 | Chris Gotterup | -11 |
| T4 | Min Woo Lee | -11 |
| T4 | Alex Fitzpatrick | -11 |
Past winners
Every edition PropGolf has on record, by PGA Tour season, with the winning total and the field's average score per round. Where two or more players tied after regulation and the record does not say who took the playoff, all of them are listed.
| Season | Winner | Total | Field / rd |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | Scottie Scheffler | -16 | -1.97 |
| 2025 | Tommy Fleetwood | -18 | -2.18 |
| 2024 | Scottie Scheffler at another course | -22 | -2.38 |
| 2023 | Playoff: Viktor Hovland / Xander Schauffele | -19 | -1.24 |
| 2022 | Rory McIlroy | -17 | -2.09 |
| 2021 | Playoff: Jon Rahm / Kevin Na | -14 | -1.19 |
| 2020 | Xander Schauffele | -15 | -1.08 |
| 2019 | Rory McIlroy | -13 | +0.03 |
| 2018 | Tiger Woods | -11 | -0.38 |
| 2017 | Xander Schauffele | -12 | -0.62 |
| 2016 | Playoff: Rory McIlroy / Ryan Moore / Kevin Chappell | -12 | -0.38 |
Best records here in this week's field
Strokes gained per round against the field across 10 editions. Minimum 8 rounds. Best is the best finish; T1 is a tie after regulation decided in a playoff.
| Player | Starts | Best | SG / rd |
|---|---|---|---|
| Xander Schauffele | 8 | T1 | +1.87 |
| Rory McIlroy | 9 | Won | +1.16 |
| Viktor Hovland | 6 | T1 | +1.16 |
| Russell Henley | 4 | T2 | +1.12 |
| Tommy Fleetwood | 5 | Won | +0.85 |
| Chris Gotterup | 2 | T4 | +0.80 |
| Scottie Scheffler | 6 | Won | +0.66 |
| Wyndham Clark | 2 | 3 | +0.52 |
| Cameron Young | 3 | T4 | +0.50 |
| Adam Scott | 4 | T5 | +0.33 |
Course at a glance
East Lake Golf Club historical scoring context, drawn from prior years of PGA Tour rounds at this venue.
Hole-by-hole
| Hole | Par | Yards | Birdie % | Bogey % | Difficulty |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 | 522 | 9.9% | 24.5% | — |
| 2 | 3 | 211 | 14.6% | 11.6% | — |
| 3 | 4 | 431 | 26.4% | 9.7% | — |
| 4 | 4 | 482 | 11.7% | 18.5% | — |
| 5 | 4 | 458 | 19.8% | 10.5% | — |
| 6 | 5 | 536 | 58.2% | 3.1% | — |
| 7 | 4 | 506 | 15.6% | 16.5% | — |
| 8 | 4 | 463 | 20.4% | 15.7% | — |
| 9 | 3 | 270 | 8.3% | 16.8% | — |
| 10 | 4 | 434 | 22.7% | 11.7% | — |
| 11 | 3 | 227 | 11.1% | 15.3% | — |
| 12 | 4 | 403 | 26.8% | 9.8% | — |
| 13 | 4 | 456 | 22.5% | 11.4% | — |
| 14 | 4 | 548 | 10.0% | 22.5% | — |
| 15 | 3 | 233 | 16.2% | 13.2% | — |
| 16 | 4 | 471 | 18.1% | 14.4% | — |
| 17 | 4 | 451 | 24.9% | 13.2% | — |
| 18 | 5 | 594 | 52.6% | 4.8% | — |
Cross-season aggregate from PGA Tour rounds at East Lake Golf Club. Live current-event rates appear inside the app during play.
PropGolf's TOUR Championship analysis
TrackMan-style radar from the TOUR Championship through three rounds: the fastest ball speeds (Chris Gotterup at 180.6 mph), who launches it highest, and how drive distance and accuracy translate to the off-the-tee markets we price.
PropGolf's model edges for Rory McIlroy at TOUR Championship: hole-by-hole birdie probabilities from this week's sim. Top 6 highest-conviction picks.
PropGolf's model edges for Scottie Scheffler at TOUR Championship: hole-by-hole birdie probabilities from this week's sim. Top 6 highest-conviction picks.
PropGolf's top 10 model-favored birdie picks for TOUR Championship 2026 at East Lake Golf Club. Hole-by-hole probabilities updated live during the tournament.
What you can do during TOUR Championship
- Live signals. Hole-by-hole birdie, bogey, and matchup edges with live odds from DraftKings and FanDuel.
- Shot-level analytics. Tee, approach, and putting breakdowns per player on every hole.
- Group view. H2H matchups, longest drive, nearest the pin, group total markets.
- Live timing. Per-group ETAs update every 5 minutes from real pace data.