The Open Championship
Jul 16 – Jul 19, 2026 · Royal Birkdale Golf Club · Southport, England, ENG
Won by Ryan Fox
The Open Championship has been played at Royal Birkdale Golf Club 2 times since the 2017 season, and the field has averaged 1.30 over par per round there. Winning totals have ranged from 10 under par to 12 under par. Ryan Fox won the 2026 edition at 10 under par.
The par-5 14th gives up the most birdies (a 41.2% birdie rate), and the par-4 6th is the hardest hole, with a 37.1% bogey rate. Of this week's field, Alex Noren has the best record here: 1.84 strokes per round better than the field over 8 rounds, best finish T6.
During the tournament PropGolf models every hole for every player live, with birdie, par and bogey probabilities beside the sportsbook lines and an ETA for each group, plus tee, approach and putting breakdowns from shot tracking at Royal Birkdale Golf Club.
Tournament recap
Up 1.04u using our recommended stake sizes (14.1u risked across 523 picks, 180 winners at 34.4% hit).
🟢 Pars — bet 230 times. 144 winners (62.6% vs 65.2% expected, odds around 1 to 1). +15.1% return (+1.58u on recommended stakes)
🔴 Birdies — bet 212 times. 15 winners (7.1% vs 13.8% expected, odds around 10 to 1). -15.6% return (-0.32u on recommended stakes)
🔴 Hit the Green picks — bet 14 times. 4 winners (28.6% vs 54.0% expected, odds around 1 to 1). -48.2% return (-0.19u on recommended stakes)
🔴 Chacarra, Eugenio long-shot — bet 3 times. 0 winners (0.0% vs 44.6% expected, odds around 1 to 1). -100.0% return (-0.05u on recommended stakes)
- Hole 18 (par 4) — 42% of the field bogeyed it, 6% birdied it, avg score +0.40 vs par → +19.7% return (+0.42u)
- Hole 5 (par 4) — 8% of the field bogeyed it, 38% birdied it, avg score -0.31 vs par → +14.3% return (+0.39u)
- Hole 13 (par 4) — 22% of the field bogeyed it, 9% birdied it, avg score +0.15 vs par → +307.8% return (+0.36u)
- Hole 4 (par 3) — 14% of the field bogeyed it, 4% birdied it, avg score +0.10 vs par → -42.3% return (-0.35u)
- Hole 15 (par 3) — 38% of the field bogeyed it, 4% birdied it, avg score +0.38 vs par → -10.9% return (-0.33u)
- Hole 12 (par 3) — 9% of the field bogeyed it, 8% birdied it, avg score +0.01 vs par → -20.7% return (-0.14u)
Here's how the Confidence tiers settled this round:
| Tier | Picks | Hit rate | Return |
|---|---|---|---|
| 🟢 CONSENSUS | 243 | 30.5% | +4.6% |
| 🟡 LEAN | 182 | 41.8% | +7.7% |
Consensus picks are paying off. Flip the 'Consensus only' filter on the Signals page to focus on what's working.
- ✅ Fowler, Rickie — 4/6 picks landed. +150.7% return (+0.38u)
- ✅ Gotterup, Chris — 3/5 picks landed. +136.7% return (+0.33u)
- ✅ MacIntyre, Robert — 4/9 picks landed. +104.5% return (+0.25u)
- ❌ Keefer, Johnny — 1/8 picks landed. -80.5% return (-0.23u)
- ❌ Fitzpatrick, Alex — 0/8 picks landed. -100.0% return (-0.20u)
- ❌ Thomas, Justin — 1/10 picks landed. -81.6% return (-0.20u)
- If the Confidence filter held up here, it's worth leaning on at the next event.
- The markets that worked here usually carry into similar courses + conditions.
- The markets that lost may rebound at venues where the course plays differently.
See the Signals page for live picks and use the Confidence filter to focus on the picks the model is steady on.
Compiled from shot-level scoring captured during play.
Final leaderboard
Top 10 at the 2026 Open Championship, by total score to par.
| Pos | Player | To par |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ryan Fox | -10 |
| 2 | Cameron Young | -9 |
| 3 | Sam Burns | -8 |
| T4 | Tommy Fleetwood | -7 |
| T4 | Scottie Scheffler | -7 |
| T6 | Si Woo Kim | -6 |
| T6 | Lucas Herbert | -6 |
| T6 | Casey Jarvis | -6 |
| T9 | Ludvig Aberg | -5 |
| T9 | Russell Henley | -5 |
Past winners
Every edition PropGolf has on record, by PGA Tour season, with the winning total and the field's average score per round. Where two or more players tied after regulation and the record does not say who took the playoff, all of them are listed.
| Season | Winner | Total | Field / rd |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | Ryan Fox | -10 | +0.74 |
| 2025 | Scottie Scheffler at Royal Portrush Golf Club | -17 | +0.51 |
| 2024 | Xander Schauffele at Royal Troon | -9 | +2.85 |
| 2023 | Brian Harman at another course | -13 | +1.75 |
| 2022 | Cameron Smith at another course | -20 | -0.38 |
| 2021 | Collin Morikawa at another course | -15 | +0.53 |
| 2019 | Shane Lowry at Royal Portrush Golf Club | -15 | +1.17 |
| 2018 | Francesco Molinari at another course | -8 | +1.56 |
| 2017 | Jordan Spieth | -12 | +1.85 |
| 2016 | Henrik Stenson at Royal Troon | -20 | +2.16 |
Best records here in this week's field
Strokes gained per round against the field across 2 editions. Minimum 8 rounds. Best is the best finish; T1 is a tie after regulation decided in a playoff.
| Player | Starts | Best | SG / rd |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Noren | 2 | T6 | +1.84 |
| Brooks Koepka | 2 | T6 | +1.72 |
| Rory McIlroy | 2 | T4 | +1.72 |
| Tommy Fleetwood | 2 | T4 | +1.72 |
| Hideki Matsuyama | 2 | T14 | +1.72 |
| Adam Scott | 2 | T9 | +1.59 |
| Matthew Southgate | 2 | T6 | +1.47 |
| Xander Schauffele | 2 | T18 | +1.47 |
| Rickie Fowler | 2 | T18 | +1.34 |
| Russell Henley | 2 | T9 | +1.34 |
Course at a glance
Royal Birkdale Golf Club historical scoring context, drawn from prior years of PGA Tour rounds at this venue.
Hole-by-hole
| Hole | Par | Yards | Birdie % | Bogey % | Difficulty |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 | 0 | 11.4% | 19.3% | HARD |
| 2 | 4 | 0 | 10.5% | 15.9% | NEUTRAL |
| 3 | 4 | 0 | 9.2% | 18.7% | NEUTRAL |
| 4 | 3 | 0 | 10.3% | 18.0% | NEUTRAL |
| 5 | 4 | 0 | 19.1% | 8.6% | NEUTRAL |
| 6 | 4 | 0 | 5.6% | 37.1% | HARD |
| 7 | 3 | 0 | 10.1% | 20.8% | HARD |
| 8 | 4 | 0 | 13.5% | 21.5% | NEUTRAL |
| 9 | 4 | 0 | 12.4% | 15.9% | NEUTRAL |
| 10 | 4 | 0 | 13.9% | 16.1% | NEUTRAL |
| 11 | 4 | 0 | 8.8% | 18.9% | HARD |
| 12 | 3 | 0 | 12.0% | 22.5% | HARD |
| 13 | 4 | 0 | 7.5% | 28.3% | HARD |
| 14 | 5 | 0 | 41.2% | 7.9% | EASY |
| 15 | 3 | 0 | 9.9% | 19.1% | NEUTRAL |
| 16 | 4 | 0 | 12.7% | 21.0% | HARD |
| 17 | 5 | 0 | 34.8% | 11.6% | EASY |
| 18 | 4 | 0 | 7.9% | 23.2% | HARD |
Historical rates aggregate prior PGA Tour rounds at this venue. Live current-event rates appear inside the app during play.
What you can do during The Open Championship
- Live signals. Hole-by-hole birdie, bogey, and matchup edges with live odds from DraftKings and FanDuel.
- Shot-level analytics. Tee, approach, and putting breakdowns per player on every hole.
- Group view. H2H matchups, longest drive, nearest the pin, group total markets.
- Live timing. Per-group ETAs update every 5 minutes from real pace data.