John Deere Classic

Down 0.71u using our recommended stake sizes (14.3u risked across 656 picks, 189 winners at 28.8% hit).

🟢 Hit the Green picks — bet 125 times. 85 winners (68.0% vs 70.0% expected, odds around 1 to 1). +8.3% return (+0.47u on recommended stakes)

🟢 Group Gir — 3 GIRs — bet 23 times. 10 winners (43.5% vs 35.1% expected, odds around 5 to 1). +57.3% return (+0.35u on recommended stakes)

🟢 Hit-the-Green-from-the-Tee (par 3) picks — bet 17 times. 13 winners (76.5% vs 77.7% expected, odds around 1 to 1). +7.1% return (+0.07u on recommended stakes)

🔴 Pars — bet 31 times. 5 winners (16.1% vs 41.1% expected, odds around 2 to 1). -58.9% return (-0.53u on recommended stakes)

🔴 Birdies — bet 303 times. 54 winners (17.8% vs 25.3% expected, odds around 5 to 1). -11.1% return (-0.48u on recommended stakes)

🔴 Miss the Green picks — bet 61 times. 12 winners (19.7% vs 27.5% expected, odds around 5 to 1). -29.4% return (-0.24u on recommended stakes)

• Hole 4 (par 4) — 22% of the field bogeyed it, 8% birdied it, avg score +0.18 vs par → +34.9% return (+0.34u)
• Hole 14 (par 4) — 5% of the field bogeyed it, 32% birdied it, avg score -0.24 vs par → +34.4% return (+0.30u)
• Hole 3 (par 3) — 10% of the field bogeyed it, 19% birdied it, avg score -0.09 vs par → +21.3% return (+0.24u)

• Hole 2 (par 5) — 1% of the field bogeyed it, 76% birdied it, avg score -0.89 vs par → -62.1% return (-0.71u)
• Hole 13 (par 4) — 4% of the field bogeyed it, 15% birdied it, avg score -0.11 vs par → -20.9% return (-0.32u)
• Hole 11 (par 4) — 18% of the field bogeyed it, 13% birdied it, avg score +0.05 vs par → -25.3% return (-0.25u)

Here's how the Confidence tiers settled this round:

• ✅ Johnson, Zach — 8/19 picks landed. +55.3% return (+0.23u)
• ✅ Malnati, Peter — 11/19 picks landed. +31.9% return (+0.22u)
• ✅ Homa, Max — 5/14 picks landed. +77.8% return (+0.16u)
• ❌ Merritt, Troy — 8/21 picks landed. -21.7% return (-0.17u)
• ❌ Fowler, Rickie — 1/12 picks landed. -85.3% return (-0.17u)
• ❌ Springer, Hayden — 0/5 picks landed. -100.0% return (-0.17u)

• If the Confidence filter held up here, it's worth leaning on at the next event.
• The markets that worked here usually carry into similar courses + conditions.
• The markets that lost may rebound at venues where the course plays differently.

See the Signals page for live picks and use the Confidence filter to focus on the picks the model is steady on.