Genesis Scottish Open
Jul 9 – Jul 12, 2026 · The Renaissance Club · North Berwick, Scotland, SCO
Won by Tom Kim
The Genesis Scottish Open has been played at The Renaissance Club 4 times since the 2022 season, and the field has averaged 0.05 over par per round there. Winning totals have ranged from 7 under par to 18 under par. Chris Gotterup won the 2025 edition at 15 under par.
The par-5 12th gives up the most birdies (a 44.2% birdie rate), and the par-4 18th is the hardest hole, with a 29.5% bogey rate. Of this week's field, Rory McIlroy has the best record here: 3.03 strokes per round better than the field over 12 rounds, including a win.
During the tournament PropGolf models every hole for every player live, with birdie, par and bogey probabilities beside the sportsbook lines and an ETA for each group, plus tee, approach and putting breakdowns from shot tracking at The Renaissance Club.
Tournament recap
Up 1.72u using our recommended stake sizes (11.1u risked across 610 picks, 175 winners at 28.7% hit).
🟢 Pars — bet 42 times. 26 winners (61.9% vs 55.5% expected, odds around 4 to 1). +67.6% return (+0.72u on recommended stakes)
🟢 Miss the Green picks — bet 113 times. 36 winners (31.9% vs 33.4% expected, odds around 3 to 1). +18.8% return (+0.32u on recommended stakes)
🟢 Birdies — bet 309 times. 47 winners (15.2% vs 21.1% expected, odds around 7 to 1). +6.5% return (+0.27u on recommended stakes)
🔴 Group Gir — 2 GIRs — bet 9 times. 2 winners (22.2% vs 34.5% expected, odds around 3 to 1). -1.6% return (-0.00u on recommended stakes)
- Hole 9 (par 3) — 28% of the field bogeyed it, 6% birdied it, avg score +0.24 vs par → +162.5% return (+0.94u)
- Hole 18 (par 4) — 14% of the field bogeyed it, 10% birdied it, avg score +0.06 vs par → +49.1% return (+0.48u)
- Hole 12 (par 5) — 21% of the field bogeyed it, 32% birdied it, avg score -0.13 vs par → +29.8% return (+0.28u)
- Hole 4 (par 4) — 21% of the field bogeyed it, 14% birdied it, avg score +0.11 vs par → -31.2% return (-0.26u)
- Hole 15 (par 3) — 8% of the field bogeyed it, 7% birdied it, avg score +0.01 vs par → -75.4% return (-0.24u)
- Hole 16 (par 4) — 42% of the field bogeyed it, 7% birdied it, avg score +0.42 vs par → -13.6% return (-0.21u)
Here's how the Confidence tiers settled this round:
| Tier | Picks | Hit rate | Return |
|---|---|---|---|
| 🟢 CONSENSUS | 296 | 27.7% | +12.3% |
| 🟡 LEAN | 168 | 25.6% | +4.4% |
Consensus picks are paying off. Flip the 'Consensus only' filter on the Signals page to focus on what's working.
- ✅ Kim, Tom — 7/10 picks landed. +223.2% return (+0.65u)
- ✅ Migliozzi, Guido — 2/5 picks landed. +283.9% return (+0.53u)
- ✅ Keefer, Johnny — 5/10 picks landed. +75.1% return (+0.15u)
- ❌ Willett, Danny — 2/9 picks landed. -67.1% return (-0.17u)
- ❌ Perez, Victor — 2/12 picks landed. -62.2% return (-0.12u)
- ❌ Yellamaraju, Sudarshan — 0/7 picks landed. -100.0% return (-0.11u)
- If the Confidence filter held up here, it's worth leaning on at the next event.
- The markets that worked here usually carry into similar courses + conditions.
- The markets that lost may rebound at venues where the course plays differently.
See the Signals page for live picks and use the Confidence filter to focus on the picks the model is steady on.
Compiled from shot-level scoring captured during play.
Final leaderboard
Top 10 at the 2026 Genesis Scottish Open, by total score to par.
| Pos | Player | To par |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tom Kim | -17 |
| 2 | Min Woo Lee | -15 |
| T3 | Matt Fitzpatrick | -13 |
| T3 | Robert MacIntyre | -13 |
| T3 | Johnny Keefer | -13 |
| T3 | Keita Nakajima | -13 |
| T7 | Rory McIlroy | -12 |
| T7 | Michael Thorbjornsen | -12 |
| T9 | Si Woo Kim | -11 |
| T9 | Victor Perez | -11 |
Past winners
Every edition PropGolf has on record, by PGA Tour season, with the winning total and the field's average score per round. Where two or more players tied after regulation and the record does not say who took the playoff, all of them are listed.
| Season | Winner | Total | Field / rd |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | Tom Kim at another course | -17 | -0.25 |
| 2025 | Chris Gotterup | -15 | +0.02 |
| 2024 | Robert MacIntyre | -18 | -1.25 |
| 2023 | Rory McIlroy | -15 | -0.32 |
| 2022 | Xander Schauffele | -7 | +1.75 |
Best records here in this week's field
Strokes gained per round against the field across 4 editions. Minimum 8 rounds. Best is the best finish; T1 is a tie after regulation decided in a playoff.
| Player | Starts | Best | SG / rd |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rory McIlroy | 3 | Won | +3.03 |
| Tom Kim | 4 | 3 | +2.00 |
| Xander Schauffele | 4 | Won | +1.94 |
| Scottie Scheffler | 3 | T3 | +1.81 |
| Adam Scott | 3 | 2 | +1.81 |
| Ludvig Aberg | 3 | T4 | +1.81 |
| Tyrrell Hatton | 2 | T6 | +1.73 |
| Robert MacIntyre | 4 | Won | +1.71 |
| Wyndham Clark | 4 | T10 | +1.69 |
| Tommy Fleetwood | 4 | T4 | +1.63 |
Course at a glance
The Renaissance Club historical scoring context, drawn from prior years of PGA Tour rounds at this venue.
Hole-by-hole
| Hole | Par | Yards | Birdie % | Bogey % | Difficulty |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5 | 592 | 36.2% | 8.8% | EASY |
| 2 | 4 | 472 | 13.8% | 20.2% | NEUTRAL |
| 3 | 3 | 194 | 12.1% | 11.3% | NEUTRAL |
| 4 | 4 | 410 | 22.1% | 7.5% | NEUTRAL |
| 5 | 3 | 158 | 19.2% | 11.6% | NEUTRAL |
| 6 | 4 | 483 | 14.7% | 18.6% | NEUTRAL |
| 7 | 5 | 564 | 38.4% | 8.0% | EASY |
| 8 | 4 | 443 | 9.0% | 24.9% | HARD |
| 9 | 3 | 206 | 7.5% | 24.3% | HARD |
| 10 | 4 | 459 | 14.9% | 20.0% | NEUTRAL |
| 11 | 4 | 481 | 6.4% | 26.9% | HARD |
| 12 | 5 | 598 | 44.2% | 6.3% | EASY |
| 13 | 4 | 417 | 16.1% | 15.9% | NEUTRAL |
| 14 | 4 | 331 | 34.5% | 7.4% | EASY |
| 15 | 3 | 135 | 16.3% | 15.1% | NEUTRAL |
| 16 | 4 | 506 | 8.6% | 23.9% | HARD |
| 17 | 3 | 197 | 10.4% | 18.3% | NEUTRAL |
| 18 | 4 | 477 | 6.9% | 29.5% | HARD |
Historical rates aggregate prior PGA Tour rounds at this venue. Live current-event rates appear inside the app during play.
What you can do during Genesis Scottish Open
- Live signals. Hole-by-hole birdie, bogey, and matchup edges with live odds from DraftKings and FanDuel.
- Shot-level analytics. Tee, approach, and putting breakdowns per player on every hole.
- Group view. H2H matchups, longest drive, nearest the pin, group total markets.
- Live timing. Per-group ETAs update every 5 minutes from real pace data.