3M Open
Jul 23 – Jul 26, 2026 · TPC Twin Cities · Blaine, MN, USA
Won by Jackson Koivun
The 3M Open has been played at TPC Twin Cities 8 times since the 2019 season, and the field has averaged 1.05 under par per round there. Winning totals have ranged from 15 under par to 25 under par. Jackson Koivun won the 2026 edition at 25 under par.
The par-5 12th gives up the most birdies (a 51.5% birdie rate), and the par-4 9th is the hardest hole, with a 25.0% bogey rate. Of this week's field, Kurt Kitayama has the best record here: 2.41 strokes per round better than the field over 12 rounds, including a win.
During the tournament PropGolf models every hole for every player live, with birdie, par and bogey probabilities beside the sportsbook lines and an ETA for each group, plus tee, approach and putting breakdowns from shot tracking at TPC Twin Cities.
Tournament recap
Down 2.50u using our recommended stake sizes (28.0u risked across 907 picks, 316 winners at 34.8% hit).
🟢 No One Finds the Fairway picks — bet 26 times. 3 winners (11.5% vs 17.1% expected, odds around 8 to 1). +54.2% return (+0.17u on recommended stakes)
🟢 Drive Result — Fairway Under (300.5) Yards — bet 7 times. 3 winners (42.9% vs 45.5% expected, odds around 2 to 1). +46.3% return (+0.12u on recommended stakes)
🟢 Gomez, Fabian long-shot — bet 3 times. 2 winners (66.7% vs 38.8% expected, odds around 2 to 1). +113.7% return (+0.09u on recommended stakes)
🔴 Pars — bet 291 times. 150 winners (51.5% vs 63.2% expected, odds around 2 to 1). -6.3% return (-0.90u on recommended stakes)
🔴 Miss the Green picks — bet 129 times. 22 winners (17.1% vs 27.1% expected, odds around 4 to 1). -28.6% return (-0.59u on recommended stakes)
🔴 Group Gir — 1 GIR — bet 10 times. 0 winners (0.0% vs 28.0% expected, odds around 4 to 1). -100.0% return (-0.25u on recommended stakes)
- Hole 6 (par 5) — 3% of the field bogeyed it, 48% birdied it, avg score -0.47 vs par → +17.6% return (+0.47u)
- Hole 15 (par 4) — 9% of the field bogeyed it, 20% birdied it, avg score -0.11 vs par → +13.9% return (+0.26u)
- Hole 18 (par 5) — 15% of the field bogeyed it, 45% birdied it, avg score -0.32 vs par → +17.9% return (+0.18u)
- Hole 9 (par 4) — 50% of the field bogeyed it, 3% birdied it, avg score +0.62 vs par → -19.2% return (-0.99u)
- Hole 11 (par 4) — 17% of the field bogeyed it, 14% birdied it, avg score +0.08 vs par → -27.9% return (-0.53u)
- Hole 16 (par 4) — 5% of the field bogeyed it, 61% birdied it, avg score -0.61 vs par → -8.2% return (-0.38u)
Here's how the Confidence tiers settled this round:
| Tier | Picks | Hit rate | Return |
|---|---|---|---|
| 🟢 CONSENSUS | 267 | 34.1% | -5.6% |
| 🟡 LEAN | 216 | 37.5% | -11.2% |
- ✅ Castillo, Ricky — 7/12 picks landed. +72.9% return (+0.30u)
- ✅ Whaley, Vince — 10/16 picks landed. +41.1% return (+0.27u)
- ✅ Streelman, Kevin — 8/12 picks landed. +50.8% return (+0.24u)
- ❌ Merritt, Troy — 5/19 picks landed. -47.8% return (-0.37u)
- ❌ Yu, Kevin — 4/18 picks landed. -66.3% return (-0.36u)
- ❌ Power, Seamus — 1/13 picks landed. -85.1% return (-0.33u)
- If the Confidence filter held up here, it's worth leaning on at the next event.
- The markets that worked here usually carry into similar courses + conditions.
- The markets that lost may rebound at venues where the course plays differently.
See the Signals page for live picks and use the Confidence filter to focus on the picks the model is steady on.
Compiled from shot-level scoring captured during play.
Final leaderboard
Top 10 at the 2026 3M Open, by total score to par.
| Pos | Player | To par |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jackson Koivun | -25 |
| 2 | Scottie Scheffler | -22 |
| T3 | Hideki Matsuyama | -20 |
| T3 | Brian Harman | -20 |
| T3 | Denny McCarthy | -20 |
| T3 | Chandler Phillips | -20 |
| T7 | Emiliano Grillo | -19 |
| T7 | Davis Thompson | -19 |
| 9 | Ben Kohles | -18 |
| T10 | Gary Woodland | -17 |
Past winners
Every edition PropGolf has on record, by PGA Tour season, with the winning total and the field's average score per round. Where two or more players tied after regulation and the record does not say who took the playoff, all of them are listed.
| Season | Winner | Total | Field / rd |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | Jackson Koivun | -25 | -1.63 |
| 2025 | Kurt Kitayama | -23 | -2.16 |
| 2024 | Jhonattan Vegas | -17 | -0.60 |
| 2023 | Lee Hodges | -24 | -1.29 |
| 2022 | Tony Finau | -17 | +0.45 |
| 2021 | Cameron Champ | -15 | -0.56 |
| 2020 | Michael Thompson | -19 | -1.05 |
| 2019 | Matthew Wolff | -21 | -1.55 |
Best records here in this week's field
Strokes gained per round against the field across 8 editions. Minimum 8 rounds. Best is the best finish; T1 is a tie after regulation decided in a playoff.
| Player | Starts | Best | SG / rd |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kurt Kitayama | 3 | Won | +2.41 |
| Brian Harman | 3 | T3 | +2.02 |
| Emiliano Grillo | 7 | T2 | +2.01 |
| Billy Horschel | 2 | T13 | +1.95 |
| Hideki Matsuyama | 4 | T3 | +1.64 |
| Tony Finau | 8 | Won | +1.60 |
| Max Greyserman | 3 | 2 | +1.60 |
| Patrick Fishburn | 3 | T6 | +1.58 |
| Lee Hodges | 5 | Won | +1.54 |
| Ben Kohles | 4 | 9 | +1.50 |
Course at a glance
TPC Twin Cities historical scoring context, drawn from prior years of PGA Tour rounds at this venue.
Hole-by-hole
| Hole | Par | Yards | Birdie % | Bogey % | Difficulty |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 | 407 | 23.0% | 8.0% | NEUTRAL |
| 2 | 4 | 465 | 15.7% | 17.5% | HARD |
| 3 | 4 | 487 | 11.4% | 20.2% | NEUTRAL |
| 4 | 3 | 174 | 18.6% | 9.0% | NEUTRAL |
| 5 | 4 | 424 | 24.0% | 8.9% | NEUTRAL |
| 6 | 5 | 578 | 41.5% | 7.2% | EASY |
| 7 | 4 | 382 | 21.6% | 12.6% | NEUTRAL |
| 8 | 3 | 196 | 16.6% | 11.3% | NEUTRAL |
| 9 | 4 | 497 | 9.8% | 25.0% | HARD |
| 10 | 4 | 373 | 22.8% | 9.7% | NEUTRAL |
| 11 | 4 | 466 | 14.0% | 15.7% | NEUTRAL |
| 12 | 5 | 585 | 51.5% | 4.2% | EASY |
| 13 | 3 | 206 | 11.5% | 19.5% | NEUTRAL |
| 14 | 4 | 429 | 16.6% | 12.4% | NEUTRAL |
| 15 | 4 | 450 | 19.4% | 11.4% | NEUTRAL |
| 16 | 4 | 372 | 25.9% | 12.6% | NEUTRAL |
| 17 | 3 | 186 | 14.3% | 11.3% | NEUTRAL |
| 18 | 5 | 590 | 38.4% | 13.1% | EASY |
Historical rates aggregate prior PGA Tour rounds at this venue. Live current-event rates appear inside the app during play.
What you can do during 3M Open
- Live signals. Hole-by-hole birdie, bogey, and matchup edges with live odds from DraftKings and FanDuel.
- Shot-level analytics. Tee, approach, and putting breakdowns per player on every hole.
- Group view. H2H matchups, longest drive, nearest the pin, group total markets.
- Live timing. Per-group ETAs update every 5 minutes from real pace data.